Bulgaria has made good progress in economic convergence with the euro area since 2024, according to the European Central Bank (ECB) Convergence Report published today, BGNES reported.

‘This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to adopt the euro on 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,’ said Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB.

‘I would like to congratulate Bulgaria on its tremendous commitment to the necessary changes,’ he said.

According to the ECB's assessment, Bulgaria is within the reference values for the convergence criteria and meets the legal requirements.

Having participated in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) and the banking union since 10 July 2020, Bulgaria has taken another step towards European integration in difficult economic conditions. To create an environment conducive to sustainable convergence in Bulgaria, stability-oriented economic policies and broad-based structural reforms are needed. These policies are discussed in more detail in the report.

As regards the price stability criterion, in April 2025 the 12-month average HICP inflation rate in Bulgaria was 2.7%, i.e. slightly below the reference value of 2.8% (see Chart 1). The reference value is based on the three Member States with the best price stability performance, namely Ireland (1.2%), Finland (1.3%) and Italy (1.4%), taking their average inflation over the last 12 months and adding 1.5 percentage points.

As regards the fiscal criterion, Bulgaria has not been subject to an excessive deficit procedure since 2012. The country's general government deficit is 3.0% of GDP in 2024, i.e. at the reference value of 3% (Chart 2). The ratio of gross public debt to GDP is 24.1%, well below the reference value of 60%, and has been below 60% of GDP for the last 20 years.

As regards the exchange rate criterion, the Bulgarian lev has participated in ERM II during the two-year reference period from 20 May 2023 to 19 May 2025. During the reference period, the lev did not deviate from the central rate of 1.95583 levs per euro. Bulgaria has fulfilled almost all of its commitments since joining ERM II, but further progress is needed to address remaining shortcomings in the area of anti-money laundering and terrorist financing.

Long-term interest rates in Bulgaria averaged 3.9% over the reference period from May 2024 to April 2025 and were therefore below the reference value of 5.1% for the interest rate convergence criterion.

As regards the compatibility of national legislation, Bulgarian legislation is compatible with the Treaties and the Statute of the ESCB, as required by Article 131 of the Treaty.

Today's report was published at the request of Bulgaria, and the next regular ECB convergence report will be published in 2026. І BGNES