Sociological surveys in Poland show a small difference in the presidential runoff between the pro-European mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, and the nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki. The vote on June 1 will determine the direction of development of this key Central European country, which is a member of the EU and NATO.
Some analysts describe the second round of the presidential election as a “clash of civilizations.”
Public opinion polls predict a close race, with 50.6% of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4% to Nawrocki, which is a small difference within the margin of error.
A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for the Polish government, which is in a political deadlock with the current president, Andrzej Duda.
It could also mean significant changes, such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and the easing of the almost total ban on abortion in Poland.
The victory of Nawrocki, supported by the right-wing Law and Justice party, could undermine Poland's strong support for neighboring Ukraine against Russia.
Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes Kiev's membership in NATO and calls for limiting aid to about one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
According to analysts, Nawrocki's victory could also lead to new parliamentary elections in the country of 38 million people, which is one of the best-performing economies in Europe.
Given the low voter turnout, the election results could be known as early as June 2.
“I would be cautious about opening the champagne on Sunday (June 1) evening,” said Anna Materka-Sosnowska, a political expert. | BGNES