This revealing episode began last week when the leaders of major European countries proposed “a complete and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create space for negotiations for a just and lasting peace.” This is the goal of Ukraine and Trump, but once again Putin responded with firm opposition.
The Russian leader responded with a proposal for direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Trump then asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the proposal. On Thursday, however, Putin opposed Zelensky, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff. Instead, the Kremlin sent a low-level delegation similar to the one it had sent in 2022 for talks that were not serious.
Donald Trump, who is in the Middle East, first said he might make a side visit to Turkey if peace talks took place. But after Putin got angry, Trump tried to smooth things over by saying, “Nothing will happen until Putin and I get together.”
It is closer to reality to say that nothing will happen until Putin feels he has an incentive to show up and negotiate. Putin's failure to show up is the latest proof that the Russian leader is not serious about ending the war, and this comes as no surprise. Putin believes that Trump may abandon Ukraine and facilitate the continued seizure of Ukrainian territory.
Since Donald Trump took office, Putin has fired 346 missiles and more than 13,000 real and decoys drones at Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War. “Vlad, STOP!” Trump wrote after a Russian strike killed civilians in Kyiv late last month. But Putin is not stopping. Civilian casualties were reported in another attack on the capital last week.
With summer approaching, Russia appears to be preparing for a new offensive. Russia gained some territory in eastern Ukraine over the winter, but at a high cost and without any strategic breakthroughs. However, Putin knows that Ukraine will exhaust its current stockpile of American ammunition in a matter of weeks.
Trump has made sincere efforts to mediate an end to the war, but the president looks worse the longer Putin talks about peace while continuing to wage war. Trump does not want the world to see him as a supplicant to the Kremlin.
The best path to peace is to increase pressure on Moscow. Trump could start with secondary sanctions against countries that buy Russian energy. Former US Treasury Department chief economist Eric Van Nostrand wrote this week that removing a quarter of Russian oil exports from the market would reduce the Kremlin's oil revenues by 20%. Global oil production is high enough that it would not raise gas prices in the US by much. Donald Trump could also announce his support for more military aid to Ukraine. Then, when Trump finally meets with Putin, Ukraine and Trump will be negotiating from a much stronger position. Peace through strength, someone once called it. I BGNES
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Editorial comment by The Wall Street Journal