Like many similar meetings before it, the red carpet that will be rolled out for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025, is typical of Donald Trump: a diplomatic show presented as a spectacle, appearing out of nowhere, with unclear goals and firm expectations for the outcome among both Trump's supporters and opponents – even before the event has taken place.

Trump is clearly trying to temper expectations by describing the meeting with the Russian president as "exploratory" in order to seek a diplomatic solution to Russia's three-year war in Ukraine.

The event comes after a period in which Trump became more critical of Putin's role in continuing the war, giving him 50 days to end it or face new US sanctions. Trump later changed course on military aid to Ukraine and increased arms deliveries. However, he has always emphasized that his priority is to restore good relations with Russia, not necessarily to save Ukraine from defeat.

Trump's past statements expressing admiration for Putin, as well as the format of the meeting, which excludes Ukraine and its European allies, provide sufficient grounds for criticism of US policy. Military expert Lawrence Freedman expressed the widespread fear that Trump will accept Putin's main demands in exchange for a truce. Similarly, CNN journalist Nick Paxton Walsh said that "it is difficult to imagine a deal that would not destroy Ukraine." Few commentators in the US and Europe support Trump's initiative, with Anatol Lieven of the anti-isolationist Quincy Institute among the few who give it at least lukewarm approval.

In Moscow, however, despite Trump's vague hints at a "territorial exchange" that could return some of Ukraine's lost lands, the official media are already hailing the meeting as a victory for Putin and a "disaster for Kiev."

Nevertheless, according to some observers, it is too early to write off the meeting and declare it doomed. Respected Russian émigré and journalist Tatyana Stanovaya argues that this is "the first, more or less realistic attempt to stop the war." There are also several important developments that mainstream commentators overlook when they underestimate the chances of success in Alaska.

What has changed?

Despite Trump's repeated promises to end the war, there has been no progress so far. His previous attempts at mediation in February and April were rejected by Putin.

But since then, a number of changes have taken place that could give Trump leverage. Seven months into his second term, he appears confident and more willing to use American power to defend national interests.

In June, he joined Israel's airstrikes against Iran, Russia's biggest ally in the Middle East. On August 8, he welcomed the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the White House, who signed a historic peace agreement – a major diplomatic blow to Russia, which traditionally dominates politics in the South Caucasus.

In addition, Trump's global trade war is worrying Moscow. On August 7, he imposed new punitive tariffs on 90 countries that did not sign agreements by the deadline. India, which last year bought $80 billion worth of Russian oil – more than China – was also hit with 50% tariffs, effective in 21 days, if it does not reduce its imports of Russian crude oil. This is potential pressure on Putin, as Russia risks losing critical revenue amid falling oil prices.

Why might this not be enough?

India may ignore the sanctions, as its key exports to the US – such as iPhones and pharmaceuticals – are exempt from tariffs and account for around $20 billion of its total $80 billion in exports. In addition, the global oil market is flexible – Russian fuel not purchased by India can be redirected to China, Turkey, Italy, Malaysia, etc. Even a loss of $10-20 billion would not paralyze Russia's $415 billion annual budget.

The devil is in the details

It is still unclear what exactly Trump is aiming for in Alaska. His main idea seems to be "land for peace" – an end to hostilities and de facto recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian.

But Moscow does not control the entire territory of the four Ukrainian regions it claims. If Putin insists on seizing the whole of Donetsk, Ukraine would have to cede about 6,500 square kilometers with 200,000 inhabitants. Zelensky would find it difficult to agree, and Putin insists that the status of these regions as part of Russia is "a closed issue forever."

Other issues, such as guarantees for Ukraine's security or Russia's demands for "denazification" and "demilitarization," can be discussed later through mediation. But the main obstacle remains the territorial issue.

Both societies are tired of war, but they do not want peace at any cost. If Trump convinces Putin to give up his claims to the entire territory of the four regions, this would be a significant concession that Zelensky could accept. In return, Putin would likely demand the lifting of sanctions and the full restoration of diplomatic relations with the US.

If such a deal is struck in Alaska, Trump will have to convince Ukraine and Europe to accept it. But given Putin's confidence that Russia is winning the war, it remains unlikely that he will yield to any proposal Trump makes in Anchorage. | BGNES

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Prof. Peter Rutland, The Conversation